Company Update #4
RADIENT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (RPC)
President, Bogner Business Associates LLC
March 31, 2011
6-12 Month Target: $3.00-$4.00
Upside Potential: $15.00-$20.00
RATING: SPECULATIVE BUY
STUDY SUPPORTS RPC’s ONKO-SURE ‘ADVANTAGES’;
REAFFIRM SPECULATIVE BUY RATING
While it now looks like RPC will only go “one for three” in March, today’s BIG HIT could go a long way in shifting investor sentiment about the stock’s valuation. And the Company’s disclosure that its Onko-Sure cancer-monitoring and detection kit does a better job of detecting early stage colorectal cancer than CEA tests could provide it with more documentation for its upcoming AMEX de-listing hearing (scheduled for mid-April) and finalizing agreements with India and other foreign governments for sale of Onko-Sure kits.
In our March 4, 2011 Company Update we cited three upcoming events that could provide RPC with strong “clinical” documentation for Onko-Sure that could bolster U.S. marketing efforts (Onko-Sure is FDA-approved for monitoring/detecting colorectal cancer) and global sales for more widespread “general screen” testing.
We believe the “preliminary” results announced today could prove to be even more positive about Onko-Sure when more specific results are published and peer-reviewed in the upcoming weeks/months. We are also impressed at the finding of using both screens—still relatively inexpensive (less than $25 for the two)—could provide even better (and earlier) detection.
RPC’s next “chance for changing” (or cementing) investor attitudes should come when it has its AMEX meeting in mid April. Like other types of “regulatory reviews” we will not venture what could happen, other than to suggest that the Company should have adequate documentation that it meets minimum listing requirements.
And while we are not sure of a specific date when international sales agreements for Onko-Sure will be concluded, we are convinced the “event” will happen.
Consequently, we reaffirm our Speculative Buy rating for risk-tolerant investors. We think the stock could return to a “pre- frenzy” level of $0.90-$1.20 per share when the next two at bats are completed (30 days), and then begin a new spiral, to our 6-12 month targets once Onko-Sure sales begin. We think revenues in 2011 could reach $12 million and that RPC will report a modest profit.
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